Weekly Valuation – Valutico | 1 March 2023

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About BP

BP, a multinational oil and gas company, headquartered in London, is one of the largest oil and gas producers in the world. The company recently published extraordinary good financials and also surprised with the announcement of a renewed focus on profit maximization and increased investments in fossil energy. 

Recent Financial Performance

In the first week of February 2023, BP released its 2022 annual report, boasting the highest net profit in the company’s history of GBP 22.7 (USD 27.7) billion. Compared with last year’s net income of GBP 10.3 (USD 12.6) billion, profit increased by an unbelievable 120%. Due to these high earnings, the company was able to pay back GBP 7.5 (USD 9.2) billion in net debt, reducing total debt to GBP 17.5 (USD 21.4) billion. Since publishing these figures, BP’s share price has risen by more than 15%. Furthermore, the company increased dividends by 10% and announced that it will buy back GBP 2.3 (USD 2.8) billion worth of shares.

New strategy: more focus on profit maximization

During the presentation of the annual report 2022, BP also announced a shift in its strategy towards profit maximization. In 2019, the company announced that it plans to reduce its oil and gas output by 40% by 2030. At this year’s event this goal was reduced by 15%, meaning fossil fuel output will only decrease by 25% by 2030. The new strategy also includes investing an additional GBP 6.6 (USD 8.0) billion into fossil energy. At least the same amount will also be invested in renewable energy. The CEO expects this dual strategy to add an additional GBP4.9 (USD 6.0) billion to the bottom line by 2030.

Share Price Performance

BP had tumultuous times over the last five years on the London Stock Exchange. In early 2018 the company traded at GBP 4.7 (USD 5.6). After the global drop-off in oil demand due to Covid-19, the share price fell to GBP 2.0 (2.4 USD). Since then the share price has risen steadily, fuelled by higher prices due to supply constraints created by the Ukraine war. The current share price is GBP 5.6 (USD 6.8). 

BP’s five-year share price chart is shown below:

Source: Yahoo Finance, https://yhoo.it/3Ip05cT

Valutico Analysis

We analyzed BP p.l.c. by using the Discounted Cash Flow method, specifically our Flow-to-Equity approach, as well as a Trading Comparables analysis. The Flow-to-Equity analysis produced a value of GBP 102 (USD 123) billion using a Cost of Equity of 7.7%.

The Trading Comparables analysis resulted in a valuation range of GBP 98 (USD 199)  billion to GBP 137 (USD 166) billion by applying the observed trading multiples  EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, P/E and P/B. For our Trading Comparables we selected similar peers such as Total Energies, Shell, Chevron and Saudi Arabien Oil Company.

Combining our Flow-to-Equity and Trading Comparables analysis results in a value range of GBP 98 (USD 199)  billion to GBP 137 (USD 166) billion. In comparison to BP’s market capitalization of GBP 101 (USD 122) billion we suggest that the company is slightly undervalued. 

Will bubbling profits keep the share price rising, or will concerns about the new, less environmentally friendly strategy cause the share price to fall again? Let us know in the comments.

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Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. None of the information contained herein constitutes a solicitation, offer or recommendation to sell or buy any financial instrument.

The post Is BP’s new strategy – full focus on profits – viable in the long term? appeared first on Valutico.

Spanish version here: tendencias_valutico_cc56_v5

As in all crises, the divergences in price between buyers and sellers are preventing a significant volume of transactions from materializing. In this market context, in which technology is also revealed as more necessary than ever, Valutico has opened an office in Spain to provide reliability and speed, allowing the preparation of high-quality and accurate valuation reports in less than a day. In short, sustainably transforming the way of approaching valuations. Dextra Corporate shares how the platform is accelerating and optimizing its processes at a time of expansion for the M&A boutique.

The pandemic has spread access to technology and data tools…
Stephan Koen: Without a doubt, the need to continue incorporating technology into the analysis and execution processes of the M&A industry is a pre-existing trend to the pandemic (as in many other sectors), but Covid-19 is causing a certain acceleration in the adoption of technology such as video- conferencing and teleworking tools, in- formation sharing and teamwork, etc. Obviously, professionals in the sector have to be open to the fact that more and more “technology” is involved in our day-to-day lives, which will undoubtedly be beneficial for our industry.

Marco Van Velzen: At the same time, teleworking requires technology to integrate new functionalities to facilitate remote work and remote collaboration, sharing information more easily.
Companies will have to adjust their processes to make them more homogeneous and it will be interesting to see if, after the pandemic, we continue to give the same importance to face-to- face meetings. In our opinion, they will remain highly relevant, but possibly at a more advanced stage. In other words, the first introduction will surely continue to be done online, but as the collaboration progresses, there will be a need to meet again in person, due to the greater trust that is generated.

Will the positive trend of closing deals continue in the coming months?
SK: The market is regaining its pulse after a very peculiar 2020 in the mid- market M&A. The main players in the sector, such as private equity funds and industrial investors, have been waiting until they see the final effect of Co- vid-19 in the different industries, but as a certain sense of normalcy resumes, the recovery and ramp up of transactions seen during the last months of 2020 is consolidating in 2021.

The post C&C Tendencias Interview with Valutico and Dextra appeared first on Valutico.

Below we outline how to improve the peer selection process when valuing businesses. If you want to access our full free guide on the subject of choosing peer companies, you can find it here.

Context: 

Valuation is all about comparison. You either compare the company to be valued (the “valuation object”) with valuation levels ofsimilar listed companies (“Peers”), with valuation levels when comparable companies where sold in the past (“Transactions”) or with an alternative investment (all Cashflow-based valuation methods such as DCF, APV, DDM, etc. calculate against a hypothetical alternate use of capital).

As a result, variability (depending on assumptions or based on evolution of the chosen comparisons over time) is inherent to the valuation practice. However, no method is prone to variations as high as the various multiples-based methods, therefore chosen peer group and transaction list has a huge impact on the result of your valuation.

Think of the example of Tesla: Do you compare it to car companies or to tech companies? If you say it’s a car company you will have a much lower valuation, because the multiples of car companies are much lower than those of tech companies.

That is why proposing the right peer groups is essential and why traditional methods such as only looking at the industry classification often fall short of the goal. Let’s review some best practices in building a peer group or a list of precedent transactions:

What makes a good peer group:

• Same or similar industry classification (because of similar competitive dynamics)-> This is the most important one, and often surprisingly challenging see below for some potential heuristics for industry similarity
• Same or similar country (because of similar regulatory and tax regimes)
• Comparable size (in terms of sales, number of employees, market cap, etc)
• Comparable operating metrics (or at the very least comparable operating models, such that Turo wouldn’t be compared against traditional car rental companies, and AirBnb wouldn’t be compared to traditional hotel chains)
• Comparable exposure to market dynamics (e.g. as shown in similar Beta)

Some ideas for heuristics that indicate same or similar industry:

• Overlap in analyst coverage (-> analysts often cover only one industry)
• Comparable company descriptions, Wikipedia pages, websites, reviews and comparative publications (G2, Gartner, SAE),
• Overlap of listed competitors (-> companies sometimes mention their own competitors in financial reports.
• Overlap/co-occurrence in news coverage, trade shows and conferences

The post Improving the peer selection process appeared first on Valutico.

Below we outline how to value businesses using peer groups and transaction multiples. If you want to access our full free guide on the subject of choosing peer companies, you can find it here.
A valuation multiple is a ratio, normally the market value of a firm’s enterprise value or equity value (based on market cap in the case of public companies, and based on transaction value in the case of private acquisition or fundraising) divided by a key financial metric from the firm’s income statement or balance sheet. Revenue multiples (e.g. 3x Revenue, or 3x current revenue run-rate) are typically preferred for growth stage companies, whereas multiples closer to the bottom line (EBITDA, EBIT, Earnings, in that order) are usually favored for more mature companies (and asset based multiples such a Book Value multiples are nearly exclusively used on asset-intensive or highly-regulated industries, such as banking and insurance, or distressed transactions)

The objective of the multiples-based approach to valuation is in part to allow for easier comparison of firms of different sizes, as well as to provide a simple calculation by which to assess a company’s value when only a few key items of its Income statement are known. A widespread and long established practice, the multiples methodology is very intuitive and does not require detailed multi-year forecasting of free cash flows, as is the case with discounted cash flows (DCF approach).

Using public peers, the value of the firm is associated with a peer group of companies considered to be comparable.

Using precedent transactions, the value of the firm is instead associated with a set of private or public transactions (acquisitions, fundraising events, and other equity transactions) via the creation of valuation multiples based on the transaction value relative to certain financial metrics of the company whose equity is being evaluated.

As the popularity of these valuations methods has grown and as multiples across many industries have expanded significantly over the past few years, we recommend a careful approach to the exercise. In this article we explore 10 best practices when building a public peer group in order to derive valuation multiples. In our next article we will review 10 tips on building a good group of comparable transactions.

1. Use the right multiple

In some cases, namely when a company isn’t profitable yet, many of the traditional multiples such as EV/EBIT or EV/EBITDA simply won’t be available, but there are situations in which choosing revenue multiples or EBITDA multiples (often liked by practitioners because closest metric available to cash flow) is desirable, such as when valuing high growth businesses. In high growth businesses, the public markets have rewarded top line growth above all other metrics and it isn’t uncommon to find fast-expanding but wildly unprofitable companies more richly valued than their more conservative peers (e.g. Uber, DoorDash, and many software companies at the time of their IPO)

One thing to be cautious about is the use of non-standard multiples, such as EV/user in tech companies, EV/room in hotels, etc. While these are extremely helpful, when available, one has to be confident in the definitions of the denominator (e.g. user = active user, or simply registered account (including inactives)). When looking for traditional multiples from an income statement or balance sheet, using a financial database is not only a time saver but also often an assurance of better data accuracy, including all necessary adjustments and normalizations.

2. Find peers that most closely match your target

While the era of conglomerates and broad horizontal businesses is behind us, many large companies operate several product or service lines that often belong to separate industries altogether. Is Alphabet a advertising company (Adwords), a media company (YouTube), a SaaS company (Google Workspaces), or even a transportation company (Waymo)? Too much diversity in a company’s activity can make it unreliable as a peer. Look for pure plays whenever possible, to get a more meaningful picture of how market participants value a particular industry. The exception of course being if valuing a company that is itself broadly diversified (in which case a sum of the parts (SOTP) valuation would be recommended, but more on that in future blog posts).

3. Expand your peers search geographically

Most businesses today are global, and it makes sense to look at global equities when building a set of peers. While public markets across the world have shown occasional differences when it comes to valuations (see our blog post on Deliveroo for an interesting example), by and large we are witnessing a diminishing and now mostly immaterial impact of geography on valuations. That said, when comparing peers from different countries it is best practice to not use P/E multiples, as they are affected by tax rates and therefore can create differences not tied to company performance. With that in mind, look for data sources that can provide you access to peers data beyond your country’s borders and therefore ensure that your valuation work itself is as global as your valuation object’s business. Especially when valuing companies in niche industries, you will find it necessary to take a more global perspective, as it is unlikely that you will find enough peers in the company’s home country.

4. Look for outliers

Behind every number is a story, and few things tell that story better than a trend analysis. While multiples are calculated at a point in time, the market cap is a reflection of how investors foresee the evolution of future cash flow and financial statements. These forecasts and opinions about future performance are helpful to study by looking at analysts consensus estimates, and are also often influenced by recent historical performance data. Therefore it stands to reason that you should look at these forecasts and at recent performance of your chosen peers to look for outliers and understand the story behind any particular company’s multiples.

How is the 3-year growth trend? Has the EBITDA improved or declined in recent years? How much do they allocate to CAPEX in general? Look into the data (or at the Benchmarking tab on Valutico) to not only understand the trajectory of your peers, but also to spot outliers, such as a firm who is very unprofitable in an industry with generally healthy margins, and consider removing them from your peer group, especially if they differ from the object of your valuation analysis.

5. Normalize the data

In comparable companies of the same market, reporting requirements and guidelines like US GAAP or IFRS tend to accomplish the bulk of data normalization. In these cases, comparing financial metrics and ratios is rather straightforward, but among the details worth considering are things like exceptional items, such as large one time impairments or write-offs, and in some cases changes in revenue recognition policies may misrepresent the real trend of top line growth. For preliminary valuations one rarely needs to worry about these situations but keeping an eye out for these or subscribing to a database that normalizes financial statements can be worthwhile.

6. Apply a premia or discounts based on qualitative analysis

Significant research, both academic and from the finance community, has been studying the impact of firm size on valuation multiples, as well as the necessity to reflect liquidity and marketability (or lack thereof) in valuations. Hence, it is common practice and indeed advisable to apply a discount or a premium to the multiples of a peer group or precedent transactions whose size or liquidity differs from the company you are valuing. While some methods apply a fairly broad stroke approach based on size, it can be prudent to conduct a deeper analysis. Valutico evaluates over 20 parameters ranging from management team quality and bench depth to various measures of business defensibility (intellectual property, customer lock in, etc.) as well as risk (currency, political, customer concentration) to recommend premiums and discounts for any valuation exercise.

7. Consider Calendar Year vs Fiscal Year

Because the denominators used in creating multiples come from infrequent annual filings, there is a real danger in comparing multiples without first calendarizing the data. Comparing 2 companies whose fiscal year ends are 6 months apart can create an illusion of starker differences than in reality. A simple but rather tedious process, this steps is best left to automation and most data providers and serious financial software (Valutico included) will perform these adjustments by default (and provide the information trail to accompany the changes)

8. Use median rather than average

Even after eliminating outliers, most peer groups exhibit some degree of variance and even companies who otherwise resemble your valuation object can have individual ratios particularly out of alignment with other peers and in some cases order of magnitude higher or lower (often the case with multiples of EBIT or Net Income for firms that are barely profitable). Therefore, best practice is to use the median values from the peer group rather than the arithmetic mean. Some data providers provide multiples by quartiles for illustrative purposes but the median is universally accepted as the optimal measure to work from.

9. Always use the industry median multiples in addition to the peer group median multiples

While a peer group provides the most helpful foundation to a multiples-based valuation, the increasing pattern of power distribution seen in many industries poses the threat of building a peer group whose multiples stray far from the overall industry’s profile. For that reason it is important to consult not only the peer group’s multiples, but also the entire industry’s multiples.

Another helpful practice is to look at median multiples for adjacent industries (for example news media vs entertainment media) as well as that of industries upstream or downstream of the industry in which the object of your valuation operates. These figures can provide insights into possible avenues for value creation or hints into areas of concerns (e.g. if multiples in your downstream industries are lesser than in your layer of the value chain vertical integration may be dilutive rather than accretive to value)

10. Look at transactions involving your peers

After a publicly traded peer analysis, the second facet of any market based valuation is a look at comparable transactions. Also known as precedent transactions, they are the recent M&A and funding events affecting companies comparable to your valuation target.

While most practitioners focus the querying on the “target company” field of the dataset they rely on, it can be helpful to use the peers identified in earlier steps (as well as some discarded for varying reasons not related to their business model similarity) and research their activity as acquirers as well.

BONUS: not multiples related. Use the peer group to inform your beta decision for the DCF CAPM method

While you’re researching peers for their multiples, gather their betas as well, and if your valuation exercise eventually requires income-based methods such as the DCF CAPM method, the beta factor will be an essential component of your cost of capital calculation.

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